Worldwide Ecommerce Landscape Research Report

The Worldwide Ecommerce Landscape — A Research Report

Data caveats: Institutions do not share a single definition of "ecommerce sales" (retail ecommerce vs total GMV; whether services, travel, etc. are included). Every key figure in this report is tagged with its source and data year; where sources disagree, they are shown side by side and labeled. Amounts are in US dollars unless otherwise noted.

1. Executive Summary

1.1 Global Snapshot

• Global ecommerce sales crossed $6 trillion in 2024 ($6.0T) and reached $6.42T in 2025 (+6.8%, the slowest growth since 2022) — ecommerce already accounts for 20.5% of worldwide retail sales, and is expected to rise to 22.5% by 2028 (eMarketer). There are about 2.77 billion digital buyers worldwide.
• The market is highly concentrated: among the world’s TOP20 ecommerce markets in 2025, China, the United States, and the United Kingdom rank 1–3; China and the US alone account for most of global ecommerce sales.
• Growth momentum has shifted from developed to emerging markets: Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, and India generally grow faster than the global average — for example, Middle East & North Africa (MENA) ecommerce grew about 30% in 2024; ecommerce GMV in the six ASEAN countries (ASEAN-6) crossed $180 billion in 2025; Latin America, Mexico, and Brazil all kept double-digit growth.
• Platform landscape: by company GMV, Alibaba ($1.26T) is first, PDD ($873B) second, Amazon ($852B) third; by single platform, Amazon is first ($846B); 8 of the global TOP10 platforms are from Asia. Amazon and Shopify together account for roughly half of US ecommerce; TikTok Shop has become one of the world’s fastest-growing ecommerce channels (2025 global GMV about $64B, +94%); Temu and Shein continue to disrupt global markets, but now face tightening tariffs and regulation in the US and Europe.
• Structural trends: social commerce / live commerce (video commerce) is the growth engine in markets such as Southeast Asia; AI shopping assistants exploded in the 2025 shopping season (US Black Friday AI shopping +805%); buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) and digital-wallet penetration are rising quickly; cross-border ecommerce has entered a cost-reset period as "de minimis" duty-free treatment is withdrawn.

1.2 Regional Overview

(Detailed figures for each region are in Chapters 3–7; sources for the numbers in this table are given in the corresponding chapters.)

2. Global Market Size & Forecast

2.1 Market Size & Growth

eMarketer worldwide retail ecommerce sales series (primary definition used here):

• Source: eMarketer "Worldwide ecommerce sales to break $6 trillion" (2024-03) — https://www.emarketer.com/content/worldwide-ecommerce-sales-break-6-trillion ; eMarketer "Ecommerce to account for more than 20% of worldwide retail sales despite slowdown" (2025-05) — https://www.emarketer.com/content/ecommerce-account-more-than-20--of-worldwide-retail-sales-despite-slowdown ; Backlinko compilation — https://backlinko.com/ecommerce-stats

Other institutional definitions (triangulation): - Statista: 2025 global ecommerce revenue about $6.3T (+11.2%), 2026–2030 CAGR about 6.84% (a market-forecast definition, different from eMarketer’s retail definition). - Source: https://tenten.co/shopify/state-of-ecommerce-2026/ ; https://bestforecommerce.com/ecommerce-statistics/market-size-growth/ecommerce-cagr-forecasts/ - Forrester (via yStats): global online retail from over $4T in 2023 to over $6T in 2028 (CAGR ≈9%); 76% of retail is still offline in 2028. - Source: https://www.ystats.com/post/global-e-commerce-in-2025-trends-growth-and-the-digital-future - Morgan Stanley (July 2026, Global eCommerce: The Agentic Era) raised the global ecommerce TAM to about $7T, with agentic commerce adding about 6% incremental volume. - ECDB (via Chinese media): global ecommerce retail crosses $8T in 2027, with online share >20%. - Source: https://www.chwang.com/ask/208264155296

Definition note: Global totals exist in several series — eMarketer $6.42T (2025, retail ecommerce), Statista $6.3T, EDC ~$6.5T, UNCTAD ~$27T (includes B2B; not directly comparable). This report uses eMarketer as the primary definition; China’s market size varies even more across institutions ($1.5T–$3.2T), so source and definition must be stated whenever the figure is used.

2.2 Top Markets

eMarketer 2024 top three: China $3.235T > United States $1.251T > United Kingdom $220.55B (China alone is more than half of global ecommerce). Source: https://www.emarketer.com/content/worldwide-ecommerce-sales-break-6-trillion

ECDB 2025 TOP10 countries (ecommerce retail sales):

• Source: https://ecdb.com/resources/sample-data/ranking/countries ; https://www.chwang.com/ask/208264155296
• Supplement (7 countries with ecommerce sales over $100B in 2025; China, the US, and Europe together contribute >$5.17T) — Shopify: https://www.shopify.com/blog/global-ecommerce-sales

⚠️ Data-quality note: Chinese media restatements of ECDB 2025 data exist in both a "$3.02T" version and a 10×-error "$302B" version; this report uses the ECDB website sample values. eMarketer’s China figure ($3.235T, 2024) is about 60% higher than ECDB ($2.04T), a definitional difference (whether services are included, how marketplaces are aggregated, etc.).

2.3 Digital Buyers & Channel Mix

2.4 Top Companies (ECDB 2025 GMV)

• Source: https://ecdb.com/blog/the-top-companies-in-e-commerce-worldwide/5223
• Platform definition (a separate ranking): Amazon platform $846.1B is #1 worldwide > Pinduoduo $780.5B > Douyin $656.4B; 8 of the global TOP10 platforms are from Asia (only Amazon and Walmart are Western).
• Source: https://ecdb.com/blog/top-10-global-platform-ranking/5213

⚠️ Definition note: ECDB’s "company" ranking (Alibaba first) and "platform" ranking (Amazon first) use different consolidation rules; they must not be mixed on the same chart.

3. North America

3.1 United States

Market size: - 2024 (final): about $1.2 trillion, more than double 2019 (Digital Commerce 360). - Source: https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/2025/03/03/us-ecommerce-sales-2024/ - 2025: DC360’s early-year forecast $1.23T; full-year actuals (after December data) show 2025 crossed $1.5T (broad definition, including categories Census does not count), and it was the fourth consecutive year of single-digit growth. - Source: https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/2026/02/16/december-ecommerce-sales-total-2025/ - Ecommerce as a share of US retail: Census definition 17.9% in 2024 Q4; DC360 broad definition reached 25% for the first time in 2025 Q4. - Source: https://www.pymnts.com/news/ecommerce/2025/ecommerce-grabs-17-9-percent-of-overall-retail-sales-in-2024s-fourth-quarter/ ; https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/2026/04/02/online-ecommerce-sales-q4-2025/ - Forecast: Forrester expects online to exceed 29% of US retail by 2029; Amazon + Walmart will take a quarter of total US retail by 2029. - Source: https://www.retailtouchpoints.com/features/industry-insights/forrester-forecast-onlines-share-of-u-s-sales-to-top-29-by-2029

Platforms: | Platform | Key data (2024–2025) | Source | |---|---|---| | Amazon | GMV crossed $800B in 2025; about 40% of US ecommerce; 2025 new-seller registrations hit a decade low (~165,000) | https://www.marketplacepulse.com/articles/amazon-gmv-surpassed-800-billion-in-2025 ; https://www.ecexpress.com.cn/mo/article/1306.html ; https://www.marketplacepulse.com/articles/amazon-seller-registrations-hit-decade-low-in-2025 | | Shopify | 2025 revenue about $11.5B (+30%); Q4 2025 GMV held +30% growth; together with Amazon about half of US ecommerce | https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/2026/02/12/shopify-revenue-b2b-sales-ai-2025/ ; https://www.marketplacepulse.com/articles/amazon-and-shopify-are-now-half-of-us-e-commerce | | Walmart | Ecommerce quarterly growth +21%~+28%; Marketplace active sellers over 200,000 | https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/2025/02/21/walmart-online-sales-q4-fy25/ ; https://cross-border-magazine.com/walmart-marketplace-growth-surges/ | | eBay | Q1 2026 revenue $2,508M (+17%) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065088/000106508826000093/ebay-20260331.htm | | Etsy | 2025 Q3 platform GMS $2,432.6M; about 5.4 million active sellers | https://www.sec.gov/ixviewer/ix.html?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1370637/000137063725000100/etsy-20250930.htm | | Temu / Shein | In August 2025 about 12% of US consumers shopped weekly on Temu/Shein (despite tariff increases) | https://www.chwang.com/news/196529428230 | | TikTok Shop | 2025 US GMV $15.1B (+68%); about 18–20% of US social commerce | https://thelowdown.momentum.asia/new-report-tiktok-shop-u-s-gmv-grew-68-to-reach-us15-1b-in-2025/ ; https://www.emarketer.com/press-releases/tiktok-shop-makes-up-nearly-20-of-social-commerce-in-2025/ |

Consumer behavior: - About 274–290 million US online shoppers in 2025 (Statista definition about 288 million; another restated figure 274 million; both about 80%+ of the population). - Source: https://soax.com/research/how-many-people-shop-online ; https://www.upcounting.com/fr-ca/blog/how-many-people-shop-online - Mobile is about 72% of US ecommerce transactions (2024, transaction-count definition; marketing-blog restatement — prefer the Section 2.3 Statista/SOXA figure "mobile is 59% of global ecommerce sales"); mobile contributed 53% of online sales in the 2024 holiday season (Adobe). - Source: https://www.amraandelma.com/us-mobile-commerce-statistics/ ; https://blog.adobe.com/en/publish/2024/08/21/adobe-analytics-mobile-shopping-expected-drive-53-percent-online-sales-during-2024-holiday-season - BNPL: About half of US consumers planned to use buy-now-pay-later in the 2025 holiday season; BNPL contributed about $1B of incremental Cyber Monday sales. - Source: https://retailgazette.com/blog/2025/10/half-of-us-shoppers-plan-to-use-buy-now-pay-later-this-holiday-season-paypal-finds/ ; https://www.newsweek.com/buy-now-pay-later-gives-1-billion-boost-to-cyber-monday-sales-11151133

What to watch: - End of de minimis: In May 2025 the US cut the lowest tariff on small China parcels to 30%; in September 2025 the de minimis exemption effectively ended, changing Temu/Shein’s price and delivery model (consumers still buy, but average order value and fulfillment have been reset). - Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-cut-de-minimis-tariff-china-shipments-54-120-2025-05-13/ ; https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/2025/09/04/when-de-minimis-rules-ended-ecommerce-changed/ - Retail media: More than $10 billion of incremental ad budget flowed into US retail media in 2025. - Source: https://www.emarketer.com/content/10-billion-incremental-ad-spending-will-flow-us-retail-media-2025 - AI shopping: AI-driven shopping volume on 2025 Black Friday surged about 805%; AI chatbots helped drive record US holiday-season online spend (about $257.8 billion). - Source: https://www.moneycontrol.com/world/black-friday-s-new-influencer-ai-powered-shopping-surges-805-as-online-spend-hits-new-us-record-article-13703025.html ; https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikestunson/2026/01/07/ai-chatbots-help-drive-record-holiday-spending-data-suggests/

3.2 Canada

• Canadian ecommerce growth slowed in 2025 (while the rest of the world accelerated).
• Source: https://thehub.ca/2026/05/15/canadian-e-commerce-growth-slowed-in-2025-as-the-rest-of-the-world-surged-ahead/
• Ecommerce share of retail differs by definition: StatCan 5.7% vs commercial institutions about 12%.
• Source: https://eightx.co/blog/canada-ecommerce-retail-share-2026
• Platforms: Amazon leads; Walmart and national retailers (Loblaw, Best Buy Canada, Canadian Tire) are strengthening Marketplace and loyalty programs.
• Source: https://www.globenewswire.com/de/news-release/2026/01/29/3228301/28124/en/Canada-B2C-Ecommerce-Market-Report-2025-Amazon-Leads-Online-Retail-While-Walmart-and-National-Players-Loblaw-Best-Buy-Canada-and-Canadian-Tire-Strengthen-Marketplace-and-Loyalty-In.html
• Chinese-platform penetration: 60% of Canadian consumers shop on Chinese cross-border ecommerce platforms (1 in 10 weekly) — Omnisend 2025 survey.
• Source: https://www.omnisend.com/blog/canada-chinese-marketplaces-research/

3.3 Mexico (high-growth market)

• 2024 ecommerce size MX$789.7B (about $38.8B), +20% (AMVO).
• Source: https://mexicobusiness.news/ecommerce/news/mexicos-e-commerce-market-was-worth-mx7897-billion-2024
• 2025 MX$941B, +19.2% (AMVO).
• Source: https://www.dny1.com/Main/ArticleDetails?id=952217255721046016
• Ecommerce growth is driven mainly by mobile and social commerce; Mexico social commerce is expected at about $5.09B in 2025.
• Source: https://mexicobusiness.news/ecommerce/news/mexico-sees-e-commerce-surge-through-mobile-and-social-sales ; https://www.yilantop.com/news/77243

4. Europe

4.1 Regional Overview

• 2024 European B2C ecommerce €819B; Ecommerce Europe / EuroCommerce European E-commerce Report 2025 forecasts 2025 +7% (about €875B).
• Source: https://www.eurocommerce.eu/2025/09/european-e-commerce-report-2025/ ; https://ecommercenews.eu/ecommerce-in-europe-grows-7-percent/
• The growth engine is Eastern/Southeastern Europe: Turkey and Bulgaria lead European ecommerce growth (ECDB).
• Source: https://ecdb.com/blog/turkiye-and-bulgaria-set-the-pace-for-european-e-commerce-growth/5211
• Platforms account for ~61% of European ecommerce, and the share is still rising — marketplaces are the dominant form of European ecommerce.
• Source: https://ecommercenews.eu/marketplaces-account-for-61-of-european-ecommerce/
• Forecast (Europe-5: UK, Germany, France, Spain, Italy): ecommerce retail reaches €565B within 5 years; by 2030 ecommerce will contribute half of retail-sales growth in Europe’s five largest markets (Forrester).
• Source: https://www.forrester.com/blogs/e-commerce-will-drive-half-of-europe-5-retail-sales-growth-by-2030/

4.2 Top Markets (2024–2025)

Definition note: Germany 2025 €83.1B (physical goods only) coexists with about €110B (including services); Italy €90.6B (2025, total definition) coexists with an earlier €62B (2023/24). State the definition when using these figures.

4.3 Cross-border & Platforms

• Cross-border ecommerce: marketplaces are about 61% of European ecommerce; Temu already matches Amazon in cross-border sales; the best-performing cross-border sellers are Nordic omnichannel firms such as Ikea, Jysk, and H&M.
• Source: https://ecommercenews.eu/temu-matches-amazon-in-cross-border-sales/ ; https://trademagazin.hu/en/az-ikea-a-jysk-es-a-hm-vezetnek-europaban-a-hatarokon-atnyulo-online-ertekesitesi-versenyben/
• Amazon Europe: Germany +8.7%, UK +12.7% (2024); 127,000+ European SMEs sell on Amazon.
• Source: https://ecommercenews.eu/amazon-grows-8-7-in-germany-12-7-in-uk/ ; https://www.chwang.com/article/193771005511
• Zalando: FY2025 GMV €17.5B (Europe’s fashion-ecommerce leader).
• Source: https://corporate.zalando.com/en/investor-relations/key-figures-2025
• TikTok Shop: live in 6 European countries as of April 2025 (UK first); targeting 200 million EU users by 2026.
• Source: https://www.oushinet.com/static/content/europe/britain/2025-04-02/1357001579319931176.html ; https://www.sellersprite.ai/en/blog/tiktok-shop-eu-2026-amazon-sellers
• Circular economy: Europe’s online second-hand resale market €21.6B (expected to add another €2B in 2025); Vinted platform 2025 GMV €10.8B (+47%, i.e. sales realized by sellers on the platform).
• Source: https://www.aboutamazon.eu/news/sustainability/second-hand-first-choice-europes-online-resale-market-worth-21-6-billion-expected-to-grow-by-2-billion-in-2025 ; https://bg.fashionnetwork.com/news/Vinted-says-sellers-earned-10-8-billion-through-the-platform-in-2025,1833562.html

4.4 Consumers & Regulation

Consumers: - 78% of EU internet users shopped online in 2025; mobile payments account for 59% of EU ecommerce transactions. - Source: https://ecommercenews.eu/78-of-european-internet-users-bought-online-in-2025/ ; https://cross-border-magazine.com/mobile-payments-in-the-eu-for-ecommerce/ - 40% of European consumers want flexible payment options (BNPL-style). - Source: https://ibsintelligence.com/ibsi-news/want-brand-loyalty-40-of-europeans-wont-settle-for-less-than-flexible-payments/

Regulation — far-reaching impact on Temu/Shein: - EU cheap ecommerce parcel imports +26% in 2025 (driven mainly by Temu/Shein) — Reuters. - Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/european-union-imports-cheap-ecommerce-parcels-jump-26-2025-2026-01-26/ - In November 2025 EU member states agreed to end the €150 de minimis exemption; from July 2026 a €3 customs charge applies to every small parcel. - Source: https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-countries-agree-tax-cheap-packages-from-july/ ; https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/29/eu-introduces-customs-charge-on-small-parcels-to-curb-cheap-chinese-imports

What to watch: - European retail-media spend €13.7B, +21.1% (IAB Europe). - Source: https://ppc.land/european-retail-media-spending-reaches-eu13-7-billion-with-21-1-growth/ - Temu/Shein growth in Europe is slowing but the base is already large; new EU rules will change their "ultra-low-price + direct-mail" model.

5. Asia-Pacific

Regional overview: Asia-Pacific is the world’s largest and most diverse ecommerce region — home both to China, the world’s #1 market, and to India and Southeast Asia, among the world’s fastest-growing; 2025 Asian ecommerce growth is expected to exceed 16%, above the global average.

5.1 China (world’s largest single market)

• 2024 online retail sales ¥15.52 trillion (+7.2%); 2025 about ¥15.97 trillion (+8.6%) — about $2.2T at prevailing exchange rates (National Bureau of Statistics, NBS).
• Source: https://dzswgf.mofcom.gov.cn/news/43/2025/1/1737092576375.html ; https://dxpress.gelonghui.com/live/2261628
• 2025 physical-goods online retail was 26.1% of total social consumer-goods retail, and has slipped slightly for two consecutive years — Chinese ecommerce has entered a "stock-competition" phase.
• Source: https://paper.people.com.cn/rmrbhwb/pc/content/202602/10/content_30139768.html
• Platform landscape: CR5 (top five platforms) concentration 78.3% (2024, ⚠️ source is an industry report uploaded to Renren Doc, not independently verified); Douyin ecommerce 2024 GMV about ¥3.5 trillion (+30%); live commerce is about 40% of Chinese ecommerce (2025).
• Source: https://www.renrendoc.com/paper/498298000.html ; https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-02-15/doc-inekpnsk6506769.shtml ; https://ecommercechinaagency.com/douyins-live-commerce-40-of-chinas-e-commerce-pie-in-2025/
• Cross-border ecommerce: 2025 imports and exports are about 70% higher than five years earlier; Temu 2024 net profit about €14.3B, still growing at about 40%.
• Source: https://imgs-b2b.100ec.cn/detail--6656317.html ; https://cross-border-magazine.com/pdd-holdings-net-profit-2024/

5.2 Japan & South Korea

Japan: - 2024 B2C ecommerce about ¥26.1 trillion (+5.1%) (METI survey); ecommerce penetration only about 9.78% — the lowest among major markets, with ample room to grow. - Source: https://www.meti.go.jp/english/press/2025/0826_003.html ; https://en.jasec.or.jp/single-post/expansion-of-japan-s-e-commerce-market-size - Platforms: Amazon Japan, Rakuten, Yahoo! Shopping as the big three; Mercari (C2C) and ZOZOTOWN (fashion) as vertical leaders.

South Korea: - 2024 online-shopping transaction value ₩242.3 trillion (about $165.9B, +5.8%, a record); mobile ecommerce share is extremely high (~80%+). - Source: https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20250204001900320 - Platforms: Coupang and Naver are in a "death match" (both set records in 2024); AliExpress and Temu combined sales in Korea are approaching ₩4 trillion. - Source: https://www.kedglobal.com/us/e-commerce/newsView/ked202501210003 ; https://www.56ok.com/topic/detail-593930-temu-aliexpress-hit-3b-in-south-korea-rival-local-ecommerce.html

5.3 India (the fastest-growing major market)

• Size definitions differ: GlobalData expects 2025 to exceed $200B (total definition); ET/Bain definition $140–160B; IBEF expects $325B by 2030, with India potentially becoming the world’s third-largest ecommerce market by 2030.
• Source: https://www.globaldata.com/media/banking/india-e-commerce-market-to-surpass-200-billion-mark-in-2025-forecasts-globaldata/ ; https://www.ibef.org/news/e-commerce-market-to-hit-us-325-billion-by-2030-rural-india-to-lead-growth
• Platforms: Flipkart leads (GMV share as high as 60%, about 220 million users); Meesho (FY25 GMV run-rate $6.2B) is growing fast; Amazon India, Myntra, Nykaa, JioMart and others compete across segments.
• Source: https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/startup/flipkart-leads-india-e-commerce-with-up-to-60-gmv-share-220-million-users-icici-securities-report-13923245.html ; https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/startup/meesho-clocks-6-2-billion-gmv-run-rate-for-fy25-to-grow-at-26-cagr-through-fy31-clsa-13004405.html/amp
• Quick commerce: annualized scale about $15B, but losses exceed $1.4 billion; Zepto, Blinkit, and Swiggy Instamart compete intensely.
• Source: https://in.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/indias-instant-delivery-race-hits-15-billion-but-losses-exceed-14-billion-4984461
• Payments: UPI is the payment backbone of Indian ecommerce.
• Source: https://www.news18.com/business/zepto-blinkit-rake-in-billions-via-upi-from-fuel-to-pharma-see-who-made-the-most-ws-adkl-9500044.html

5.4 Australia & New Zealand

• Australia: 2024 online spend A$69B (a record) → 2025 A$82.6B (+14%); Amazon AU, Temu, and Shein are the growth protagonists, while domestic retailers lose share.
• Source: https://eightx.co/blog/australian-online-retail-spend-2026 ; https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/10158-amazon-temu-and-shein-growth-story-continues-march-2026
• New Zealand: 2024 Q4 online spend NZ$1.73B (+9%); "Temu fever" is lifting purchase frequency and lowering average order value.
• Source: https://www.nzpost.co.nz/about-us/media-centre/media-release/online-shoppers-spent-173-billion-october-to-december-2024

5.5 Southeast Asia (one of the world’s fastest-growing ecommerce regions)

• Total size (two definitions):
• e-Conomy SEA (Google/Temasek/Bain): 2024 Southeast Asia digital-economy GMV $263B (+15%), of which ecommerce $159B; 2025 digital economy over $300B, ecommerce about $181B.
  • Source: https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/around-the-globe/google-asia/sea-economy-2024/ ; https://www.temasek.com.sg/en/news-and-resources/news-room/news/2025/e-conomy-sea-2025-report-aseans-digital-economy-poised-to-surpass-300-billion
• Momentum Works (platform GMV only): 2024 $128.4B → 2025 $157.6B (+22.8%), with top platforms’ share rising to 98.8%.
  • Source: https://thelowdown.momentum.asia/new-report-southeast-asias-platform-ecommerce-reaches-us157-6b-in-2025-with-top-platforms-expanding-share-to-98-8/
• Platform landscape: Shopee is #1 (2025 global GMV $127.4B, of which SEA about $66.8B); TikTok Shop is rising fast (Thailand 2025 revenue ฿54.4 billion, about 4× growth, overtaking Lazada into second place); Lazada is third; Tokopedia has been folded into the TikTok ecosystem. Chinese platforms account for about 50% of Southeast Asia ecommerce GMV.
• Source: https://kr-asia.com/tiktok-sea-alibaba-owned-e-commerce-corner-asean-markets ; https://www.baijing.cn/article/55754 ; https://www.yiofong.com/news/2510312802
• Video commerce is the growth engine: 2025 ASEAN-6 ecommerce transaction value crossed $180 billion, pulled mainly by video/live commerce.
• Source: https://dxpress.gelonghui.com/p/3531912
• Country snapshot (2024–2025):

Definition note: Southeast Asia totals exist in two series — e-Conomy SEA (broad definition, including non-platform and services, $181B/2025) and Momentum Works (platform GMV only, $157.6B/2025); Thailand nationwide ecommerce $200–220B is an extremely broad definition, and Malaysia RM937.5B (9M2025) is a national digital-economy statistic — none of these is directly comparable to B2C GMV.

6. Latin America

6.1 Regional Overview

• eMarketer (2025): Latin America has "reclaimed its position as the world’s fastest-growing ecommerce market"; regional ecommerce is expected to exceed $200B in 2026 (industry estimate).
• Source: https://www.emarketer.com/content/latin-america-ecommerce-forecast-2025-growth-outlook-argentina-brazil-mexico ; https://www.ikj168.com/36935.html
• Drivers: mobile-first, the cashless wave (Pix, Mercado Pago, etc.), active cross-border ecommerce (96% of Brazilian consumers have cross-border shopping experience), and installment-payment culture in high-inflation markets.
• Source: https://www.pymnts.com/news/mobile-commerce/2025/cashless-wave-sweeps-latin-america-amid-mobile-fintech-boom/ ; https://www.amz123.com/kx/SwP8Mw4I

6.2 Brazil (largest market)

• Size definitions vary (must be stated): R&M B2C definition 2025 $64.09B (+9.9%); iiMedia retail-ecommerce definition $86.53B; ABComm industry definition 2025 actual R$235B (about $42–45B), 2026 expected R$258B.
• Source: https://www.globenewswire.com/de/news-release/2026/01/22/3223437/28124/en/Brazil-B2C-Ecommerce-Business-Report-2025-Market-to-Grow-by-9-9-to-Reach-64-09-Billion-Forecasts-to-2029.html ; https://www.iimedia.cn/c1094/109481.html ; https://www.baijing.cn/article/56161
• Ecommerce is about 9% of Brazilian retail; online-shopping penetration about 70%.
• Source: https://www.chwang.com/news/185073367176 ; https://www.tkfff.com/149002.html
• Platforms: Mercado Livre dominates (Shein is Brazil’s largest fashion ecommerce platform, R$15B fashion GMV); Asian cross-border platforms’ combined share has risen to 41.5% (Shopee/Shein/AliExpress/Temu); Shopee recaptured #2 in Brazil traffic.
• Source: https://www.dny1.com/Main/ArticleDetails?id=886579476673073152 ; https://mjzj.com/article/fp9ilf5j6pz5 ; https://www.ikj168.com/23707.html
• Payments: Pix is the growth engine — 2025 79.8 billion transactions, R$35.36 trillion; Pix installments (Pix 4x BNPL) launched; Brazil BNPL 2025 $4.66B (+14%).
• Source: https://clearingpost.com/insights/pix-breaks-all-records-in-2025-798-billion-transactions-move-r-3536-trillion/ ; https://thepaypers.com/payments/news/ebanx-pagaleve-launch-pix-instalment-bnpl-solution-in-brazil ; https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250228118181/en/Brazil-Buy-Now-Pay-Later-Business-Report-2025-BNPL-Payments-to-Grow-by-14-to-Reach-$4.66-Billion-this-Year-with-Cleo-ADDI-and-DiniePay-Leading---Investment-Opportunities-to-2030---ResearchAndMarkets.com

6.3 Mexico (regional growth engine)

• 2024 ecommerce $38.844B / MX$789.7B (+20%); ecommerce about 6.9% of GDP (AMVO/INEGI); online-shopping penetration is high ("84%" is a second-hand restatement, not independently verified — use with caution).
• Source: https://www.americaeconomia.com/en/node/290899 ; https://mexicobusiness.news/ecommerce/news/mexico-e-commerce-hits-69-gdp-2024 ; https://www.amz123.com/kx/xv1QYzZM
• 2025 MX$941B (+19.2%); Mexico is expected to lead Latin America ecommerce growth in 2026.
• Source: https://www.dny1.com/Main/ArticleDetails?id=952217255721046016 ; https://mexicobusiness.news/ecommerce/news/mexico-projected-lead-regions-e-commerce-boom-2026
• Platforms: Mercado Libre and Amazon lead; Shein/Temu penetration is rising fast; US sellers are important in cross-border.

6.4 Argentina · Chile · Colombia

• Argentina: CACE 2025 report transaction value +55%, cross-border purchases up to 47% of the mix; interest-free installments (cuotas sin interés) are a core sales tactic.
• Source: https://zxchuhai.com/202603/46332.html ; https://integracionempresaria.com.ar/el-sector-del-ecommerce-analiza-al-dia-de-la-ninez-las-cuotas-sin-interes-y-otras-estrategias-claves-para-potenciar-ventas/?lang=en
• Chile: Cyber Day single-day record about $200M; 78% of cross-border orders come from China; MercadoLibre leads.
• Source: https://www.upkuajing.com/knowledge/zixun/22477 ; https://www.sohu.com/a/949648298_121672345
• Colombia: 2024 ecommerce transaction value about 105 trillion pesos (+26.7%); Mercado Libre, Temu, and Amazon are the traffic top three.
• Source: https://www.trademag.org.tw/page/newsid1/?id=7916345&iz=6 ; https://www.amz123.com/t/3Aq3JRVE

6.5 Platforms

• Mercado Libre (Latin America’s undisputed leader): 2024 Q4 net revenue $6.1B (+37%), buyers crossed 100 million for the first time; the highest-valued Latin American company on Wall Street; plans to invest $5.8B in Brazil and add 14,000 employees; record full year 2025, Q4 revenue +45%.
• Source: https://news.mercadolibre.com/en/financial-results-fourth-quarter-2024 ; https://hk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-878209 ; https://news.mercadolibre.com/en/financial-results-fourth-quarter-2025
• Amazon Brazil: 250+ fulfillment centers by end-2025; 13,000 extra temporary jobs for Black Friday.
• Source: https://100ec.cn/index/detail--6654393.html
• Temu/Shein: Temu briefly topped charts in Brazil and Mexico; but after Brazil raised taxes in 2024–25, Chinese platforms saw their first traffic decline (Valor) — "share rising" and "losing ground" narratives coexist, depending on the metric and time window.
• Source: https://www.10100.com/article/21960329 ; https://valorinternational.globo.com/business/news/2025/05/14/chinese-platforms-lose-ground-in-brazil-amid-higher-taxes-competition.ghtml

7. Middle East & Africa

7.1 Regional Overview

• Middle East: B2C ecommerce revenue is expected to exceed $202B by 2029 (Research and Markets); Middle East retail ecommerce grew about 19.8% in 2025; MENA ecommerce GMV grew about 30% in 2024 (UAE and Saudi Arabia in the lead).
• Source: https://www.globenewswire.com/de/news-release/2026/01/12/3217066/28124/en/Middle-East-B2C-Ecommerce-Market-Opportunities-to-2029-Revenues-to-Exceed-202-Billion.html ; https://adgully.me/post/9604/mena-e-commerce-sees-30-growth-uae-saudi-lead-in-gmv
• MEA overall: expected to exceed $338B by 2031, 2026–2031 CAGR 13.85% (Research and Markets).
• Source: https://www.globenewswire.com/de/news-release/2026/03/18/3257960/28124/en/Middle-East-and-Africa-E-commerce-Market-to-Surpass-USD-338-Billion-by-2031-Growing-at-13-85-CAGR-During-2026-2031.html
• Very low penetration but world-leading growth: MEA ecommerce penetration is under 5%; Turkey + Saudi Arabia account for about 45% of MEA ecommerce; Egypt has the highest growth rate.
• Source: https://www.sgpjbg.com.cn/hyshuju/821cdf3262c35facf9712acdc1bdc95c.html ; https://www.sgpjbg.com.cn/hyshuju/a586f9ca0cce75eb8586ca4e91cd7a94.html

7.2 Key Middle East Markets

7.3 Africa

• Market size: Africa ecommerce about $40.49B in 2025, with potential to double to about $113B within 5 years (market-report definition cited by China’s Ministry of Commerce); about $75B by 2030.
• Source: https://amzdh.com/others/8748.html ; https://cm.mofcom.gov.cn/sqfb/art/2024/art_db6333cc46f24483b746d99474d78bb2.html
• Mobile-first + mobile-payments driven: Africa had more than 1 billion mobile-wallet accounts in 2024, with $1 trillion in transaction value (GSMA); mobile payments contribute about $190 billion to African GDP. This is the feature that most distinguishes African ecommerce from other regions.
• Source: https://allafrica.com/stories/202504160452.html ; https://capitalethiopia.com/2025/04/21/africa-leads-global-mobile-payments-contributing-190-billion-to-gdp/
• Core markets:
• Nigeria: B2C ecommerce over $20B by 2029 (another definition $16.7B by 2030); Jumia and Konga dominate. Source: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/01/29/3228308/28124/en/Nigeria-B2C-Ecommerce-Report-2025-A-20-Billion-Market-by-2029-Size-Forecast-by-Value-and-Volume-Across-80-KPIs.html
• South Africa: 2025 online retail over R130B (about $7B+), ecommerce about 10% of retail; Takealot leads, with Amazon (South Africa site launched 2024), SHEIN, and Temu disrupting the market. Source: https://www.businessday.co.za/bd/economy/2025-09-11-sas-online-retail-sales-to-exceed-r130bn-in-2025-says-study/ ; https://techcabal.com/2025/09/11/south-africas-online-retail-boom-exceeds-7bn/
• Kenya: 2024 $2.6B (+12.9%); M-Pesa is the payment backbone; Jumia, Kilimall, etc. Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kenya-ecommerce-market-databook-2024-074100422.html

7.4 Platforms

• Gulf: Amazon (.ae/.sa) and Noon as a duopoly; SHEIN and Temu expanding fast (DHL and EMX partnerships strengthening fulfillment).
• Source: https://www.logisticsmiddleeast.com/news/dhl-and-temu-expand-partnership-to-boost-e-commerce-growth ; https://www.logisticsmiddleeast.com/news/temu-expands-sea-shipping-and-pudo-services-in-uae-with-emx
• Pan-Africa: Jumia (NYSE: JMIA) FY2025 revenue about $190M (+13%), exited Algeria to focus on core markets; local platforms Takealot (South Africa), Kilimall (East Africa), and Konga (Nigeria) each hold their ground.
• Source: https://www.ecomcrew.com/jumias-fiscal-year-25-revenue-was-us190-million-a-year-on-year-increase-of-13/
• What to watch: low penetration (<5%) + high growth + a young population make MEA the region with the most room to imagine; constraints are last-mile logistics and payment inclusion (being filled rapidly by mobile payments).

8. Cross-Cutting Trends

8.1 Social & Live Commerce

• TikTok Shop has become the world’s fastest-growing ecommerce platform: 2025 global GMV about $64B (+94%), of which US $15.1B (+68%); Southeast Asia is its largest growth pole (some Chinese media reports of "approaching $100B" are a definitional difference; this report uses the conservative $64B figure).
• Source: https://www.amz123.com/t/5hqGiKqT ; https://thelowdown.momentum.asia/new-report-tiktok-shop-u-s-gmv-grew-68-to-reach-us15-1b-in-2025/
• China live commerce is about $900B, already approaching the scale of the entire US ecommerce market (NielsenIQ); Douyin for the first time took 31% share, overtaking Taobao as #1 in China live-commerce GMV (BXTData; its "52 trillion RMB" headline is a clear transcription error; the credible range is 5–6 trillion RMB).
• Source: https://nielseniq.com/global/en/news-center/2026/chinas-900b-live-commerce-market-now-approaches-us-e-commerce-scale/ ; https://www.bxtdata.com/en/insights/9514/Live%20Commerce%20GMV%20Exceeds%2052%20Trillion%20CNY%20Douyin%2031%20Percent%20Share%20First%20Time%20Surpasses%20Taobao
• Social commerce is a "trillion-dollar" opportunity (industry valuation definitions vary; $1.2T is a second-hand citation from an SEO content site, for reference only); only 13% of US consumers buy directly inside social platforms (2025, Sprout Social, via second-hand restatement) — Western markets are still in a climb phase.
• Source: https://ecommercefastlane.com/the-rise-of-social-commerce-how-brands-can-capitalize-on-this-1-2-trillion-opportunity/ ; https://postplanify.com/blog/social-commerce-statistics-2026
• Platform signal: Amazon shut down its social-shopping feed Inspire in February 2025 and shifted to the AI shopping assistant Rufus — social commerce and AI shopping are competing for the "discovery" entry point.
• Source: https://techcrunch.com/2025/02/18/amazon-kills-inspire-its-tiktok-style-feed-for-discovering-products/

8.2 Cross-border & Temu/Shein

• Global ecommerce is expected to reach $11.4T by 2029 (Juniper Research); in some survey markets cross-border shopping already accounts for 55% of purchasing behavior (yStats).
• Source: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240826914800/en ; https://finbets.websol.barchart.com/?module=topNews&storyID=30661085&symbol=&selected=news
• Temu: 2025 GMV estimated $90–95B, about 530 million users accumulated in ~3 years; in early 2026 an industry report said it had caught up with Amazon in global cross-border ecommerce share (about 24% each, not total ecommerce share); parent PDD’s 2025 annual report shows "the hyper-growth phase is over."
• Source: https://sjqcj.com/new?p=42 ; https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2026-01-22/doc-inhiecca2872516.shtml ; https://www.globenewswire.com/fr/news-release/2026/03/25/3262038/0/en/PDD-Holdings-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-2025-and-Fiscal-Year-2025-Unaudited-Financial-Results.html
• Shein: Hong Kong IPO valuation is about 75% below the prior ~$100B fundraising valuation; the prospectus disclosed full revenue for the first time (more than Adidas and H&M combined).
• Source: https://fashionunited.com/news/business/shein-ipo-valuation-lowered-amid-slower-growth-and-regulatory-scrutiny/2026081774110
• Regulatory shock (2025–2026, the largest variable in cross-border ecommerce):
• United States: from May 2025 the de minimis duty-free allowance for China parcels was cancelled, resetting Temu/Shein US average order value and delivery times.
• EU: 2025 cheap-parcel imports +26%; from July 2026 a €3 handling fee is charged on every small parcel (affecting Shein, Temu, AliExpress).
• Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/shein-temu-charges-de-minimis-trump-tariff-2025-5 ; https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/eu-slaps-3-fee-cheap-ecommerce-parcels-blow-shein-temu-aliexpress-2026-07-01/

8.3 AI & Agentic Commerce

• Bain (Nov 2025): agentic AI is "poised to disrupt retail," but about 50% of consumers remain cautious about fully autonomous purchases.
• Source: https://www.bain.com/about/media-center/press-releases/20252/agentic-ai-poised-to-disrupt-retail-even-with-50-of-consumers-cautious-of-fully-autonomous-purchasesbain--company/
• Coveo holiday report: >70% of consumers are willing to use a GenAI assistant for holiday shopping; among Gen Z and millennials the share is 85%.
• Source: https://ir.coveo.com/en/news-events/press-releases/detail/453/
• November 2025 "AI shopping war": Walmart, Amazon, Target, Google, Meta, and OpenAI all launched AI shopping tools ahead of the holiday season; US Black Friday AI-driven shopping +805%.
• Source: https://www.axios.com/2025/11/27/ai-shopping-tools-christmas-gifts-chatgpt ; https://www.moneycontrol.com/world/black-friday-s-new-influencer-ai-powered-shopping-surges-805-as-online-spend-hits-new-us-record-article-13703025.html
• Implication: the search→purchase path is being rewritten as "searchless" AI recommendation; brands need to optimize for "recommendability" by AI shopping assistants (Euromonitor: From Search to Searchless Discovery).
• Source: https://www.euromonitor.com/article/from-search-to-searchless-discovery-competing-for-visibility-in-ai-led-commerce

8.4 Payments: Wallets & BNPL

• Digital wallets already account for more than half of global online transactions (Worldpay Global Payments Report 2026); crypto is predicted to be the fastest-growing online payment method.
• Source: https://www.worldpay.com/en-ZA/insights/articles/gpr-2026-trend-3
• The global BNPL market is about $560B (The Paypers); about a 130× increase over ~10 years. Regional cases: Saudi BNPL $1.48B (Tabby/Tamara), half of US holiday-season consumers using BNPL, Brazil Pix launching installments (Pix-4x).
• Source: https://thepaypers.com/payments/expert-views/split-in-four-how-bnpl-is-changing-the-way-consumers-pay ; http://investor.wedbush.com/wedbush/article/bizwire-2025-11-26-saudi-arabia-buy-now-pay-later-business-report-2025-2030-148-billion-market-driven-by-tamara-tabby-postpay-spotti-toyou-and-rising-financial-institution-participation-researchandmarketscom

8.5 Mobile & Structural Trends

• Mobile already accounts for about 73% of global online shopping (industry-blog definition; there is also a more conservative Statista/SOXA "mobile is 59% of global ecommerce sales" figure, see Section 2.3).
• Source: https://www.ecommercebridge.com/mobile-commerce-takes-73-of-online-shopping/
• Marketplace-ization is irreversible: marketplaces already contribute 83.4% of global ecommerce revenue (ECDB); Europe is 61%; the Mirakl index shows 2025 marketplace GMV +34% (about 4× overall industry growth).
• Source: https://ecdb.com/blog/marketplace-dominance-in-ecommerce/5194 ; https://www.mirakl.com/blogs/marketplace/mirakl-powered-marketplaces-grow-34-outpace-industry-by-4x-2025-index-report/
• Retail media: for a fifth consecutive year the fastest-growing ad channel; Amazon is the clear leader; US 2025 incremental ad budget over $10 billion, Europe €13.7B (+21.1%).
• Source: https://theadspend.com/blog/retail-media-fifth-straight-year-on-top ; https://ppc.land/european-retail-media-spending-reaches-eu13-7-billion-with-21-1-growth/
• Returns and sustainability: 2025 online return rate 15.8%, industry cost about $850 billion — reverse logistics is shifting from a cost center to a competitive weapon.
• Source: https://www.indexbox.io/blog/online-returns-surge-to-158-in-2025-costing-retailers-850-billion/
• Quick commerce: India 2030 GMV outlook $60–83B (marketing-blog restatement of industry forecasts, for reference only); the global market is expanding fast but losses and consolidation coexist.
• Source: https://www.multibagg.ai/market-pulse/articles/india-quick-commerce-2030-outlook-cmr4wf7d37txmpo0jhnalq47v

8.6 Global Platform Ecosystem (2025)

2025 global GMV top three: Amazon, PDD (Temu), ByteDance (TikTok Shop) (trade-media definition).

9. Conclusion & Outlook

9.1 Key Findings

1. Global ecommerce has entered a "mature-growth" phase: after crossing $6T in 2024, global growth has slowed to single digits for consecutive years, but ecommerce’s share of retail is still climbing (>20%). The growth center of gravity has shifted from "raising penetration" to "channel deepening + new models (social/live/AI/quick commerce)."
2. Regional divergence is sharp: developed markets (US, Europe, Japan, Korea, Australia) are low-single-digit growth; Southeast Asia (+16~23%), Latin America (world’s fastest), the Middle East (20~30%), and India (the fastest major market) are the growth engines; China has entered stock competition (online retail 26.1% of social retail and down for two consecutive years).
3. Platform landscape is "one superpower, several strong players + new-force disruption": Amazon global GMV over $800B, world’s #1 by revenue; Shopify, Walmart, Shopee, Coupang, and Mercado Libre each hold a region; Temu/Shein are reshaping global low-price ecommerce with China’s supply chain + traffic playbook, but are now being squeezed by US/EU tariffs and new rules (end of de minimis, €3/parcel tax); TikTok Shop was the world’s fastest-growing ecommerce channel in 2025.
4. Three structural trends are irreversible: marketplace-ization (marketplaces 83.4% of global ecommerce revenue); social/live commerce spilling from China to the world (video commerce as Southeast Asia’s growth engine); AI shopping moving from "tool" to "entry point" (agentic commerce; the search→purchase path is being rewritten).
5. Payments are the "utilities" of emerging markets: digital wallets are 50%+ of global online transactions; Pix, UPI, and M-Pesa as local instant-payment systems define the shape of ecommerce in Brazil, India, and Africa respectively; BNPL ($560B global market) is penetrating every region.

9.2 Outlook

9.3 What to Watch

• TikTok Shop global GMV (2025 $64B; whether 2026 targets are met) and EU expansion (200 million user target)
• Temu/Shein average order value, fulfillment model, and GMV trajectory under new US/EU rules
• Reallocation of search ads and on-site traffic by agentic AI shopping (OpenAI, Google, Amazon Rufus, Perplexity, etc.)
• Southeast Asia platform concentration (top 3 already at 98.8% share) and country regulation (Indonesia, Vietnam ecommerce rules)
• Substitution effects of Brazil Pix installments / India UPI-ization on BNPL and consumer credit

10. Appendix: Glossary & Sources

Key Source Institutions

Full source list: every key figure is tagged with a source URL in the body of this report. Original research notes and all source URLs are in the 7 findings documents under the research/ directory (global overview, North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Latin America, Middle East & Africa, global trends).

Glossary